Monthly Archive 2025年3月6日

The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best record in the Western Conference and they’ll visit the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday night. Oklahoma City is 48-11 on the season, just one game behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for the best record in the NBA. Meanwhile, San Antonio is 25-33 overall and is 13th in the Western Confernce standings. The Thunder have won and covered the spread in seven of the last 10 head-to-head matchups with the Spurs.

Tipoff from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio is set for 7 p.m. ET. Oklahoma City is a 13-point favorite in the latest Spurs vs. Thunder odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 238.5. Before making any Thunder vs. Spurs picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 19 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 147-106 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 18-10 (64%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Spurs:

Spurs vs. Thunder spread: Oklahoma City -13
Spurs vs. Thunder over/under: 238.5 points
Spurs vs. Thunder money line: San Antonio +540, Oklahoma City -781
Spurs vs. Thunder picks: See picks at SportsLine
Spurs vs. Thunder streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Spurs can cover
San Antonio ended a four-game losing streak with a 130-128 win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday night. With Victor Wembanyama (blood clot) out for the season, the Spurs leaned heavily on their bench in the victory over the Grizzlies. San Antonio used a nine-man rotation and all four players coming off the bench scored at least 14 points.

Rookie Stephon Castle led the Spurs with 24 points off the bench in the win and San Antonio shot 52.1% from the floor as a team. The Spurs were 5.5-point road underdogs against Memphis and have also won 10 of their last 14 at home against the Thunder. See which team to pick here.

Why the Thunder can cover
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City extended its lead in the Western Conference standings to 9.5 games on Friday with a 135-119 win over the Atlanta Hawks. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led all scorers with 31 points in the victory, while Luguentz Dort and Jalen Williams both added 20 points.

Isaiah Hartenstein also had 13 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, two steals and a blocked shot in 27 minutes off the bench. The Thunder have covered the spread in two of their last three games as double-digit road favorites and are also 6-2 ATS over their last eight games against Southwest Division opponents. See which team to pick here.

How to make Spurs vs. Thunder picks
The model has simulated Oklahoma City vs. San Antonio 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Under the total, projecting 226 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see the NBA picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Thunder vs. Spurs, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Thunder spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 147-106 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.

Where to bet on NBA games
Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on NBA games today, along with the various NBA sportsbook promos they currently offer.

Nikola Jokić is the rare star scorer that might actually prefer to be double-teamed. It’s part of what makes the Nuggets star one of the greatest offensive players in NBA history. He doesn’t want to score 50 points. He wants to scare you into thinking he might because his legendary passing can take over a game when you send too much help his way.

Jokić ranks third in the NBA in scoring this season, but second in assists. His playing style has historically treated the former as a means to the latter. Jokić is, first and foremost, perhaps the greatest passer in NBA history.

It is distressing, from that perspective, how much more comfortable teams are becoming in throwing extra bodies at him this season. His past week or so could be accurately summarized by the screenshot below from Denver’s 110-103 loss to the Celtics on Sunday.

Jaylen Brown got caught against him in an unfortunate cross-match, but the Celtics identified the mismatch as soon as the ball was entered into him. By the time he had a hand on the ball, Luke Kornet and Jayson Tatum had fully abandoned their assignments to help, while Sam Hauser had stepped in at the ready, with his eyes off of his own man.

Two years ago, that would be a pretty blatant example of a defense over-helping on Jokić. This year, it’s increasingly becoming something like the norm because of the players the Nuggets have put around him.

NBA Power Rankings: Cavs take back No. 1 from OKC, Lakers looking scary, streaking Pistons vault into top 10
Colin Ward-Henninger
NBA Power Rankings: Cavs take back No. 1 from OKC, Lakers looking scary, streaking Pistons vault into top 10
Tatum was guarding Christian Braun, who takes only 2.6 3-pointers per game. Kornet was guarding Zeke Nnaji, who entered Sunday’s contest having attempted 31 3-pointers all season. And Hauser was on Russell Westbrook, who is perhaps the worst high-volume 3-point shooter in NBA history. The only 3-point threat on the floor for Jokić to pass to was Julian Strawther, who, unsurprisingly, was the only Denver player that Boston didn’t help off of on the play. Boston reasoned that leaving Braun, Westbrook and Nnaji wide-open was more palatable than giving Jokić a sliver of daylight. They were betting on those shooters missing.

Success hasn’t even been a guarantee when the shots have gone in. Consider last week’s game against the Lakers. Denver shot a strong 16 of 41 from deep. A conversion rate of 39% is quite good, but the volume is what ultimately matters here. The Nuggets typically average a league low 31.5 3-point attempts per game. They took 41 against the Lakers, which is what the fourth-place Cavaliers attempt on average. But they only scored 30 points in the paint. Against Boston on Sunday, Denver scored 38.

Those are the points Denver really needs.

A sign of things to come for the Nuggets?
The Nuggets lead the league in paint points this season at around 59 per game. The best defenses have seemingly decided that Denver’s shooting is such a weakness that there is practically no limit to the lengths they can go in order to wall off the paint. Some teams are able to do so more effectively than others, but that shooting is limiting the Denver offense no matter what.

The Nuggets managed to score 68 paint points against the Bucks on Thursday, but still lost the game. Why? Because the Bucks eagerly allowed the Nuggets 23 wide-open 3-point attempts in that game, more than all but two teams in the league average per game. Denver made only six of them.

This is probably what life is going to be like for the Denver offense in high-leverage regular-season games and especially in the playoffs. Teams are no longer afraid of sending help against Jokić because they understand that the math is going to work out in their favor. The Lakers game epitomized that. On paper, 41 attempts looks like a lot. In a vacuum, it might be. But the Lakers defended Jokić in a way that invited Denver to shoot 50 3’s because they knew that the Nuggets wouldn’t be comfortable doing so. Their offensive instinct was to keep trying to figure it out in the paint. They wound up turning the ball over 20 times trying to force the issue.

Aaron Gordon didn’t play on Sunday. He’s having the best shooting season of his career at 41.5% from deep. Tighter rotations in the playoffs make it easier to remove problematic shooters. But given the weaknesses of almost every Nuggets player outside of the core four, there may not be better options available. Jokić is a problem solver. Show him a version of this defense seven times in two weeks and he’s going to figure out the best way to attack it even if there isn’t exactly a good one.

But at the end of the day, this is the NBA in 2025. If an offense is vulnerable enough to feasibly allow even a momentary and instinctive quadruple-team, it is probably going run into problems in the playoffs. Denver’s championship hopes rest on not only its ability to make the wide-open 3s Jokić is creating for his teammates, but its willingness to even take them.

We’ve got another exciting Western Conference matchup on the NBA schedule as the Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves are set to tip at 9:30 p.m. ET on Sunday at PHX Arena. Phoenix is 28-32 overall and 17-12 at home, while Minnesota is 32-29 overall and 16-15 on the road. Minnesota has dominated this series in recent years, winning six straight against the Suns.

The Suns are favored by 1 point in the latest Timberwolves vs. Suns odds via SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 232.5 points. The Suns are -116 on the money line (risk $116 to win $100), while the Timberwolves are -103 (risk $103 to win $100). Before entering any Suns vs. Timberwolves picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 19 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 147-106 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 18-10 (64%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Minnesota vs. Phoenix. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for the game:

Suns vs. Timberwolves spread: Suns -1
Suns vs. Timberwolves over/under: 232.5 points
Suns vs. Timberwolves money line: Suns: -116, Timberwolves: -103
Suns vs. Timberwolves picks: See picks here
Suns vs. Timberwolves streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Suns can cover
Having struggled with three losses in a row, the Suns finally turned things around against the Pelicans on Friday. They took down New Orleans 125-108. Phoenix pushed the score to 92-70 by the end of the third, a deficit New Orleans cut but never quite recovered from. Multiple players turned in solid performances to lead the Suns to victory, but perhaps none more so than Bol Bol, who went 9 for 12 en route to 25 points and two blocks.

Forward Kevin Durant leads the Suns in scoring, averaging 26.7 points per game. Guard Devin Booker has also been effective for Phoenix, averaging 26.2 points, 6.9 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game. As a team, the Suns are scoring 113.0 points per game on average. See which team to pick here.

Why the Timberwolves can cover
Meanwhile, the point spread may have favored the Timberwolves on Friday, but the final result did not. They were just a bucket shy of victory and fell 117-116 to the Jazz. Minnesota was up 59-46 in the second but couldn’t hold on to the lead.

Despite their defeat, the Timberwolves saw several players rise to the challenge and make noteworthy plays. Naz Reid, who dropped a double-double with 27 points and 11 rebounds, was perhaps the best of all. For the season, Reid is averaging 14.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. Reid has recorded a double-double in five of his past seven outings. In addition, Minnesota is 5-1 against the spread in its last six meetings against the Suns. See which team to pick here.

How to make Suns vs. Timberwolves picks
The model has simulated Suns vs. Timberwolves 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under the total, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Timberwolves vs. Suns, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 147-106 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.

Where to bet on NBA games
Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on NBA games today, along with the various NBA sportsbook promos they currently offer.

SPORTSBOOK BONUS OFFER
DraftKings Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets instantly
FanDuel Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets if your first bets wins
BetMGM Up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses
Caesars Bet $1, double winnings your next 10 bets
Fanatics Bet and get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets
bet365 Bet $5, Get $100 in bonus bets win or lose